May 16, 2008

Why Yahoo Doesn't Monetize As Well As Google

This will be a post that I refer to often because it lays out the data on why Yahoo's monetization trails Google.  I've written about this a lot but I've never backed it up with data the way Seobook has in this post.  It references Efficient Frontier data on traffic syndication, clicks, and conversion.

I've recently talked to a lot of investors and there's this misconception that search advertising is more complicated than it really is (there really is a lot of dumb money out there).  Quality traffic matters a great deal more than optimization in today's situation. 

And I can tell you that some of that Yahoo syndication traffic is not pure "search intent" traffic.  I'm not a pissed off advertiser ranting about this-- I dabble mostly on the publisher side. 

You should read the post-- here are some highlights:

If you normalize the above Yahoo! numbers you will see that search clicks convert nearly twice as well as their syndication traffic does.

Yahoo! has to sell 3 mortgage clicks to make as much as Google makes from 1, but Yahoo! sells a couple of those clicks through syndication partners which keep most of the ad revenue.

Put another way, a Yahoo! click for mortgage is worth the same $15 that it costs on Google, but it goes for less than $5 because Yahoo! forces advertisers to eat junk traffic too.

I realize that this Seobook post brings one additional assumption to the forefront:  if Yahoo syndicates Google paid search, will Google allow Yahoo to run on their entire network or just the Yahoo owned and operated search property? 

If Google allows Yahoo to run it on their entire search network, overall CPCs might dip a bit, depending on how much Yahoo's performance effects the average. 

If Google allows Yahoo to run their paid feed on only the O&O Yahoo properties, then we'll see the Yahoo paid search marketplace take a big price hit.  Currently, the performance on that network is being averaged over the O&O and their syndicates.  If it's no longer blending O&O traffic into the mix then the quality will drop sharply. 

Speaking in general,  Google has been more disciplined about syndicating their paid search feed.  On the other hand, Yahoo loved the incremental bump in revenues and gave out their feed to everyone who asked.  So while both companies have engaged in traffic cleaning over the past couple of years, Yahoo's had a much tougher time with this than Google. 

So what's the key to fixing this issue?  Growing the percentage of pure search traffic.  How you do that is highly debatable at this juncture, so let's just say that it's some combination of distribution, branding, and building a better algorithmic search engine.  I know that everyone who has tried to switch away from Google always comes back so that says something.

It feels nice to finally point to some data and get some support here.  For a long while, I felt like how Barry Ritholtz must've felt on Kudlow & Company last week-- very lonely. 

Past posts:

Some Early Anecdotal Data On The Google Yahoo Search Test

Catching Google Isn't Simply About Building A Better Mousetrap

Yahoo Has A Traffic Problem- Finally Analysts Are Starting To Get It

Balance Of Power Shifts For Yahoo

Yahoo Terminating YPN Distributors Using Myspace-- This Validates Low Quality of Traffic Concerns

Desktop Cleaning: Online Advertising Research PDFs on Ads, Search, Mobile, Video, etc.

A bunch of PDFs that have been sitting on my desktop:

AOL Open Mobile (March 2008) - Download AOL-OSiM-USA-2008-Presentation-Final.ppt
For more info, visit: http://dev.aol.com/openmobile

Morgan Stanley Tech/Internet Trends Oct 2007 (Meeker) - Download meeker.pdf

Jupiter / Revenue Science on Behavioral Targeting & The Purchase Funnel Opportunity (~April 2007) - Download JupiterResearchStudy.pdf

DeSilva+Phillips Ad Network White Paper (March 2008, good for newbies) - Download desilvaphillips_ad_networks_white_paper_3_08.pdf

JP Morgan, Imran Khan, "Nothing But Net" Jan 2008 "We believe some of the factors that drove F’07 outperformance will persist into F’08, and thus expect the sector to outperform the broader market."- Download jpm_nothing_but_net.pdf

Goldman Sachs Internet Report- "10% Average cut to Internet price targets given market conditions" (March 2008) - Download gs_internet_march_2008.pdf

IAB Platform Status Report - A Digital Video Advertising Overview (Jan 2008) - Download dv-report-v3.pdf

McKinsey Global Survey: How Companies Are Marketing Online - Download mkonline.pdf

Bear Stearns - Youtube Model Buildup (March 2008, entire pdf here) - Download bear_youtubemodel.pdf

More technical:

Hal Varian: Position Auctions (Dec 2005, rev Nov 2006) - Download position.pdf

Hal Varian: The Economics of Internet Search (Dec 2006) - Download varian_econof_searchlecture.pdf

Is Google Recession Proof? No, It's Recession Resistant

From Fortune, here's Hal Varian, chief economist at Google on the subject: 

First, he found that Google has a "GDP beta" of one, meaning that because the company's ad base is diversified, its business should swing according to the overall economy. That would seem to be troubling. Yet Varian also determined that because Google is so successful at targeting its ads- advertisers who buy the phrase "digital camera" on Google are highly confident they'll attract digital camera shoppers - it will be less susceptible to economic trends. Furthermore, because Google caters to advertisers who buy in small increments, Varian thinks the company's offering appeals in price-sensitive times. His overall conclusion: "There is something of a contra-cyclical nature" to Google's business. What's more, the massive shift underway from traditional media to online will trump any effects Google might otherwise feel from a weak economy.

This is the story that I've been supporting--  the growing online ad pie is strongly negating any recessionary effects on the ad system. 

May 15, 2008

It Doesn't Feel Right Labeling Search A Natural Monopoly

I don't feel right labeling search a natural monopoly but Blodget does.  I wonder what Hal Varian thinks.  Actually, we know what Hal Varian thinks:

We can't fall back on economies of scale, or switching costs, or network effects, to isolate us from the competition. The only thing we can do is work as hard as we can to keep our search quality better than that of the other engines.

That doesn't sound like a natural monopoly to me.  Of course, the media might be using a perverted version of the term...



Data Points on Social Media Advertising

Clickz’s analysis of the eMarketer report. "Social networking is going to become something less of a destination," said Williamson. "I think it will become a feature or interactivity or Internet browsing experience," Link

Clickz on Pubmatic’s data on eCPM declines. Link

In a report titled "The End of Advertising as We Know It", IBM has predicted significant changes for online advertising, forecasting "greater disruption for the advertising industry in the next five years than occurred in the previous 50. Link

 

Mark Cuban Likes My Idea

Mark Cuban seems to be interested in my idea:

What is it worth to be in the Google Index ? What would you, as a website owner require in order to remove your site from the Google Index and no longer be available when someone does a google search ?

Me in January 2006:

...preventing robots from crawling their sites would take a way much power from Google...

Actually, this wasn't really my idea-- I was just blogging this Businessweek piece about the big content companies banding together to build their own search engine and denying other search engines access to their sites. 

I also mentioned that this scenario would give a leg up to "social search". 

More Google Adware Patent Apps

This is old but, Google Toolbar is pretty much adware at this point on the data harvesting end.  They just filed some more apps and they're thinking about ad serving too:

In another variant all user behavior tracking and ad insertion can be done by software residing on the client device (e.g., the Google Toolbar).

USPTO, via Valleywag.

Related:

Mozilla Considering Opt-In Browsing Tracking

Charter Starts Selling Your Browsing History

May 14, 2008

Horan Leaving IAC- Was Reorg'd Out

Peter Horan, CEO of IAC Media & Advertising is leaving:

he is not leaving because of any dissatisfaction with his current job or company

The real story is that he basically got reorg'd out of a job.  No surprises here. 

Listings


Search


  • Google
    Web Clickety Clack
AddThis Social Bookmark Button

effectivecpms at gmail dot com



  • Subscribe in Bloglines
    Subscribe in Rojo
    Add to Google

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Blog powered by TypePad